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Meet the Experts: Mike Holden Shares His Thoughts, Sources, and Favorite Betting Memories

In a brand new series at WLB, we're infiltrating the minds of some of the smartest minds in the betting industry, asking experts to uncover their favorite resources, valuable insights and the biggest wins in the game, starting with founder of Foxpunter Mike Holden ( @ Ratings_Mike ).

When did you first start betting? Can you remember your first bet?

Late 1980s. I think I was about 13 or 20 when I put my first acc (eight commands if memory serves) in Ladbrokes opposite the old Parkside pub just off Maine Road. Manchester City were at home, so everything would have been packed, but they never really worried about me showing them my ID.

What sports or leagues do you bet and bet on?

I mostly stick to the EFL and play in the Premier League to a lesser extent, but a few years ago I really enjoyed betting on the MLS and Brasileirao in the summer. months. I still don't understand why I stopped.

What sites or sources do you use to subscribe to them?

I listen carefully to post-match management interviews, mostly via YouTube or local BBC radio stations. I used to rely on local newspapers a lot, but now clickbait culture has destroyed most of them.
Fortunately, NTT 20 the boys stay on top of most things and have excellent visibility at all times.

What are your favorite research websites?

For the given expected goals (xG), I am taking a read from my own Foxpunter Ratio tables xG. For chronological results and scores for a competition, I mainly use SoccerAssociation.com which is also a paid subscription.
For position results, I use Soccerstats ... And for face-to-face meetings and filtering players, I use SoccerBase .

What characteristics do you think are the most important?

I don't really feel hierarchy when it comes to statistics. A guess comes first, and then I check the statistics that I think are most relevant in this context to see if they match my initial suspicions or not.

Are there any statistics or trends that you think are irrelevant?

I think that each type of statistic may have some value when used in the right context, but statistics by themselves have no real predictive power.

People say direct historical records are nonsense and mostly correct. But when the second league side didn't win in familiar territory at 20 - weird visits, and talk about it, it doesn't matter. It's on their minds and part of the profile of this game.

What's the biggest lesson you've learned when betting?

It sounds silly, but I've always used my bets as a vehicle to teach me about life. All the psychological and personal development work I've done over the years has been to try and win a few pounds.
Now I am doing psychological profiling and coaching people based on how their mind works, which was what I just got into, but I really like it.

Why is value important when placing bets?

I think that the concept of supporting the price, not the team, can sometimes be overstated, especially in professional football, when there are so many eyes looking around the markets day in and day out.
But let's be clear on one thing: no one will ever make a long-term profit without ever exceeding the closing price. So yes, price matters.

What advice do you have for players looking to try and find an edge?

Mind your own business and become the best at it.
Find your niche, preferably something obscure, and keep refining what you know until you ultimately reap the benefits of complex effects. Using the old oil digging metaphor, it's better to drill 1980m in one place. than 500 m in five locations.

What's your biggest bet and how will you spend it?

I made about £ 8 when Bradford won the Second League playoffs in 2013. I ranked them as the best team in the division and supported them with double-digit promotions for weeks after the League Cup final in late February. That ended my best season, finishing roughly £ 35,000 in total.
My wife was six months pregnant with our first, so I set up a nursery, took a three month vacation and went to the beach every day!

Are you reviewing your bets and keeping track of your winners / losers?

Yes. This means that I never deceive myself about the bottom line, but now everything is moving so fast that it is difficult to find the time to check and analyze them in detail.

How do you deal with losing bets?

It depends on how many you are talking about. Everyone has their own threshold, and I think your tolerance improves with experience.
These days I can handle a losing month with no problem, and usually grind my teeth after a second, but this third consecutive losing month is a killer. That's when I start to become a diva.

What's the best thing about betting?

For me, there has always been such a moment when you look at a match with confidence that there are no blind spots in your knowledge, and everything is focused on an acceptable price and a confident winner. It is a sense of conviction.
Unfortunately, data science is killing this hype. This is so hard to fix at the moment.

About Mike Holden

Mike Holden began playing sports as a teenager in the late 1980s, spent most of the 2000 working as a casino dealer, then graduated as a journalist in the mid 2000s.

Then, following his beloved Manchester City home and nearly 35 years old, he raised the sticks 2008 to start a new life (and family) in Valencia - two months before Sheikh Mansour take over.

He started out as an informant for Bettingzone in 2004 and wrote regularly for the Racing Post, The Sack Race, and FourFourTwo. He is also the founder of the exclusive Foxpunter rating service.

Message Meet the Experts: Mike Holden Shares His Opinions, Sources, and Favorite Betting Memories We love to place bets .

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