In a brand new series at WLB, we're getting into the minds of some of the smartest minds in the betting industry, asking experts to unleash their favorite resources, insights and biggest game wins, with Jeevan Jeyaratnam ( @ JeevesOdds ) ) is next.
When did you first start betting? Can you remember your first bet?
Apart from the proxied Grand National bets, I remember that my first independent bets were made two Ladbrokes store in Bromsgrove where I live. This should have happened during the 2005 - 406 season, I turned 18 in October 1997. Considering that I was still watching 15, there was no doubt that there would have been any bets after that age limit!
Several friends took weekend coupons and studied them in the sixth-graders' common room. In anxious to get involved, I found myself committing the sin of placing p line 'list of sections'.
Since then, I have one comment left from a friend. He said: " don't bet on a draw, neither team will pick a draw. " Although, as I later learned, the Serie B games disproved this theory, I have always kept this philosophy in mind.
Soon, my first bet on the scorer followed, but in fact it was a miracle bet on the result. I recall that Mikkel Beck from Middlesbrough was involved, except that most likely he did not. My first comeback was because Beck didn't start, but I got the correct result and all bets went back to him. I have never looked back and since then, the scorers have become the "currency" that pays my bills.
What sports or leagues do you bet and bet on?
We are a fairly small company, so we all participate, I am no exception. My leagues are the Dutch Eredivisie, the Russian Premier League, the Danish Super League and the Australian Premier League. Most of my serious (or, as I rather inaccurately call them, "professional") bets originate here. I feel like I have the advantage of my daily research.
Aside from the scorers, I like to focus on Asian handicap betting where the best value can often be found. These markets operate at tiny margins (~ 2%) and as a result, you can often find more accurate quotes about the exact same 1X2 rates.
For example, a bet on Groningen at -0. 90 Asian handicap picking is exactly the same bet as supporting Groningen to win the 1X2 market. It's always worth checking if your bookmaker offers an Asian handicap.
There are not many operators that I would recommend to have money in the account that we do not provide, so I do not have a lot of options when it comes to wagering.
What sites or sources do you use to subscribe to them?
My team and I have an extensive list of trusted sites for each league, here is a list of the best leagues I consider:
- Australian A League — https://www.a-league.com.au/ - Lineups are announced here every Thursday morning during the season.
- Dutch Eredivisie — https://www.fcupdate.nl/competities/nederland/eredivisie/ Is an excellent Eredivisie news aggregator.
- Danish Super League — https://www.tipsbladet.dk/forside - Fantastic previews and news.
- Russian Premier League — https://www.rusfootball.info/pliga/ Is an aggregator of Russian football news, clean and easily translatable. I must also take off my hat before @ East 1997, Joel Amorin, who writes Russian Premier League previews for WhoScored.com. It's great and we exchange information a lot.
What are your favorite research websites?
The coronavirus shutdown meant that the team and I had to dig even deeper into our trusted sources to get information on some of the smaller leagues we chose.
Since early March, this has prompted us to create lineups for the Serbian Premier League, Ukrainian Premier League, South African Premier League and Singaporean Premier League - all to no avail as football was delayed faster than we could publish.
We are more fortunate with Belarus, where we are now making rates for scorers and player cards, and more recently the Nicaraguan Primera Liga was added to our repertoire.
My contributors are experts in finding the latest news in local media, but we only use the brilliant www.transfermrkt.co.uk to help us track lineups and transfers. Our popular statistics site is a paid one www.soccerassociation.com , its concise and responsive layout makes it a pleasure to use.
www.whoscored.com miraculously updated F OPTA. 33 data streams and their heatmaps can often help pinpoint the exact position when sources are different. www.soccerway.co.uk Is another useful site, but be careful if you think that two sources giving the same details are confirming the truth. For example Soccerway and Whoscored are provided by the same OPTA data source.
Twitter is also a great tool for finding information and finding information. Use the list function to focus and block out most of the noise and you will benefit.
What characteristics do you think are the most important?
It depends on the type of market you are targeting, but for scorers the key indicators are minutes per goal, shots on goal, and most importantly, position. The greatest benefits are usually achieved through the lower leagues (to which I include all of the above), and invariably because more difficult team news requires a position change for a particular player.
Here are some recent examples: Kasper Kusk switched from wide midfielder to AaB center striker in the Danish Super League. This change follows the sale of Mikkel Kaufmann to FC Copenhagen during the winter transfer window.
Kuska tried as a warm-up striker before resuming the season in February. It was reported that he would be given the chance to play the same role against Silkeborg in the league. The report was listed here; https://www.tipsbladet.dk/nyhed/superliga/optakt-silkeborg- if-aab-5.
He not only played at his best, but also scored the only two goals in the game. We had a % Chunk of AaB goals that made it a bargain, with firms outside of our supply line 8/1 (6/1 fair) to score first and 5/2 (16/8 fair) at any time.
Interestingly, transfermrkt and others point out that he played RW in games in which he featured as a center forward. In Soccerway, by contrast, he is in the right position, but stresses the importance of cross-checking independent sources and not depending on one or two that are essentially the same.
Due to problems in Feyenoord, left-back Rigciano Haps was pushed to the left flank before the coronavirus was suspended. Some firms continued to value him as a left-back in a 4-1-2-3 formation, which is 33/1 or more. Despite not scoring in the league yet in his new position, he distinguished himself in the defeat of the KNVB Beker (Cup) NAC Breda on March 5th.
Are there any statistics or trends that you think are irrelevant?
Don't be seduced by novelty-driven statistics, they are often used in marketing, but the message they portray is usually misleading. The biggest mistake a player makes is assuming that the massive change is due to the tiny sample sizes. However, as in the examples above, if the change is due to a specific reason, such as a change in position, and then move on to it, these "errors" do not last long.
Comparing the personal results of teams over a period of more than a year is also pretty useless. The number of staff changes in a modern club means that the only static variable is the name of the club.
What's the biggest lesson you've learned when betting?
Determine the "true" price of a bet at any time before evaluating its value. This is much easier said than done, but by keeping track of your rates, you will create an idea of whether your estimates are correct or not.
You will need to keep detailed records to collect a sufficient sample size to be sure, but don't leave that as a souvenir. You will find that you will remember wins, but not losses, and this will ruin your gambling habits.
Marco Blum, Chief Commercial Officer of Pinnacle (if you don’t know about Pinnacle, I would encourage you to study the firm and its impact on the entire market) once explained that their attitude to risk and positive approach to arbers, which is so different from 406% other bookmakers were encouraged the fact that at any time they understood their true prices and trusted them
By offering these "true" prices with minimal margin protection, they have created a highly profitable, high-turnover, low-margin empire that can cause heart attacks for most trading directors.
If you are not sure if you have the best compilers in the industry, then you will drown pretty quickly. If you truly trust your team and your profit numbers serve as proof, then you will be more than happy to place large bets on your margin-protected quotes.
Why is value important when placing bets?
Betting and gambling are in the entertainment industry, so I like to think of a big divide between those who happily put aside £ 5 or 'bet builder' every week for fun, and those who are more serious about their gambling. Given the forum, I believe this article is addressed to the latter group. In this case, value is critical to anyone hoping to make a profit year after year.
Value is simply betting with odds that do not fully reflect the likelihood of an event occurring. Of course, it is difficult to define what “value” is. If you can find a niche to beat the book (and can keep the account open), then you will be profitable in the long run.
However, algorithms are constantly evolving, and the advantage may disappear one day the next. It's important to understand when your advantage has been waned and stop overestimating.
What advice do you have for players looking to try and find an edge?
A common misconception is that multiple bets are always negative. Of course, yes, accumulators multiply the bookmaker's margin, and if you think the odds are low, you pay a negative price. However, if you feel like you have a positive advantage over multiple bets, you multiply your positive value.
What's your biggest bet and how will you spend it?
My former colleague @ fryboyracing once knocked over 33/1 and 33/1 takes on horseback, it was a great evening at the office, albeit small stakes! Freiboy (Simon) remains the most discerning mind in horse racing I have ever encountered, he is top-notch.
I am a fairly short gambler and the nature of my bets (mostly on singles) means that the expected winnings will never be the jackpot payout. The pleasure of being able to prove my case is the main thrill for me, I keep my gambling accounts separate, keep money (with reputable clients) in accounts and almost never make deposits or withdraw funds.
My biggest win was when I saw an ad in the Racing Post of a low odds compiler in Birmingham when I was working at William Hill Store in 2005, it pushed me towards a dream career in a world that I love very much.
Are you reviewing your bets and keeping track of your winners / losers?
I place my bets on "fun" and "professional", for someone like me who does not bet on life and has no intention of doing it, but instead works on the other side of the fence, it is important to separate the two. I often make a small "funny" bet (usually the cards of the players in the bet builder) while watching the game, I have no real illusion that I am getting a profit, but equally I will not settle for clearly understated choices.
My 'professional' bets are moments when I truly believe I have an edge, I will still be betting them at fairly small rates, but I will keep records and value them in detail that I simply would not be for. " fun. "
How do you deal with losing bets?
It goes without saying that you should never bet more than you can afford to lose, even though no one likes to lose! To be honest, “professional” bets, especially if the starting prices confirm my initial thoughts were correct, I don't care about losing. Get enough of these booked rates and you will be ahead in the long run.
It is frustrating when a “pro” bet goes backwards and ends in a knockout, these bets require a lot more research and analysis to figure out what you may have missed.
Funny bets can be frustrating, but assuming you're in control and they give me 95 minutes of heightened pleasure, then win or lose, I'll take that.
What's the best thing about betting?
Working in the industry is an absolute gift, there is so much to learn, so many angles from which to approach every aspect. Before Cheltenham Betfair market was a source of incredible interest with millions of matches. Watching this development was a truly fascinating exploration of the wisdom of crowd theory.
Without thinking, we make decisions based on probability and chance every day. Betting markets simply offer a lens through which to see how successful our interpretations of this are. They are simple representations of more varied and complex events and can help provide a source of insight that cuts through media exaggeration.
Jivan Jeyaratnam ( @ JeevesOdds ) is a senior coefficient compiler for Abelson Odds, which is part of Information about Abelson ... Abelson Odds is a B2B provider of scorer and player card markets for dozens of football leagues around the world, offering many tier 1 bookmakers, including SkyBet , Flutter, William Hill and GVC.
Expert Post: Jivan Jeyaratnam Shares His Opinions, Sources and Favorite Betting Memories which first appeared on We love bets .