In an all-new series at WLB, we're infiltrating the minds of some of the smartest minds in the betting industry, asking experts to unleash their favorite resources, insights and biggest wins in the game, with James from @ ValueSportBets following.
When did you first start betting? Can you remember your first bet?
I caught a hook, line and sinker in 1999 by mail from Colin Davey, a horse racing and greyhound specialist in Newmarket who sold his "guaranteed profit" systems. It was a fee for access to his methods and a daily premium phone call for advice.
My first bet was 2/1 "certainty" that, you guessed it, she lost well. It took me almost a year of this type of loss and a decent chunk of student loan down the drain to realize it was a complete scam and close the plug.
However, due to my love for mathematics, statistics and sports, especially football, my interest was piqued.
What sports or leagues do you bet and bet on?
As an avid soccer fan, I have mainly focused on soccer betting, in particular in the 1 × 2 and Asian Handicap markets. In fact, I am not limiting myself to any specific leagues or countries, as my main goal is to find value ratios that can show up anywhere.
In the past year, I found that value in 1 × 2 markets has become harder to find, which makes me wonder if even soft bookmakers are becoming more efficient at pricing them (or are they just copying sharp books). It is definitely getting a lot harder to find an edge in soccer betting, despite what you see in Twitter gambling!
More recently, I noticed that ice hockey was offering some good priced bets in the 1 × 2 3-way markets, so I suggested them until I took a break due to family circumstances (DOI: I don't know anything about ice hockey other than affordable prices! )
What sites or sources do you use to subscribe to them? What are your favorite research websites?
I believe oddsportal.com very useful from a visual perspective of price movements and differences. I also used Joseph Buhdahl's site all the time football-data.co.uk as an extremely detailed source of historical prices, articles and manuals. Joseph's data can be analyzed with a fantastic workbook with betgps.com to create an impressive resource of historical prices statistics. in.
I am a member of the excellent Poisonfoot.com which integrates mathematical models, statistics and price-based forecasts among other resources.
For match tracking and statistics, I use FlashScore , SofaScore and Stats Zone Apps (a big fan of the Stats Zone app due to the sheer amount of real-time stats, high odds, player influences, etc., which can help with on-the-go betting).
I also use a small selection of reputable colleagues on Twitter for their advice - it took years and mistakes to decide who to listen to !!
What characteristics do you think are the most important?
As a price-based bettor, I've been pretty outspoken about the fact that all statistics are useless. As I got older and experienced the ups and downs of rates, I became less black and white in my opinion. I just try to focus on what I am doing and help teach others who ask for my advice or help. I understand that others will use statistics in search of profit and luck
In my opinion, the best statistics are related to prices and their movements. I will often use the close close to the start of the Asian market as an effective benchmark for perhaps the most accurate indication of the likely outcome. I believe that this price will already be reflected in many of the available statistics, team news, weather, etc. - let the price do the work for you.
Are there any statistics or trends that you think are irrelevant?
I am struggling with the concept of reliance on face-to-face meetings and the last 5-10 match the results to calculate probabilities, which are displayed in colored tables and sold as warnings or clues. These tables are usually taken from the same available statistical sources and, as such, will already be included in the bookmaker's price. In my opinion, this makes tips / alerts useless and unlikely to be profitable in the long run.
Football is a game with a lot of random action: to state that since more than 2.5 goals were scored in 75% from the previous matches of both teams combined, it should have a 75% probability of appearing in the next match (an almost completely independent event) is a gross oversimplification and mathematically unlikely.
I understand that people will pay someone to collect these statistics and assemble them - outsourcing is a very productive method to get the job done efficiently. I just don't see any value in actual statistics as a standalone betting tool as they are often advertised.
What's the biggest lesson you've learned when betting?
In general, Twitter gambling does not represent real betting - quite the opposite. The bright timing of winner after winner advertising and the 20% + ROI already has one goal: to attract more unsuspecting players to buy their services / tips / statistics sheets. No bets are recorded, losing bets are deleted, coupons are faked, losing Telegram services are deleted and new ones are created - you name it, I've seen it.
Only those who sell the service win - most players move from service to service, most of them are too shy to advertise their losses. If they do complain publicly, they are gathered in a group crowd to silence them: this is a real trash heap.
Real betting is a hell of a lot of hard work, often quite frustrating and requiring real discipline to achieve any kind of long-term profit that very few people manage to make honestly or successfully.
Another lesson I have learned recently is the need to develop methods / approaches as perceived benefits come and go - markets are constantly evolving and the bettor needs to be supportive.
Why is value important when placing bets?
For me, along with understanding the basic principles of statistics and probability, finding value in price is at the heart of the whole principle of this elusive goal in betting: achieving long-term profitability. ...
If it seems to me that I have identified an advantage by which I can get a better price than what I calculate as the true price, then, regardless of individual results, over a period of time I can get a better price than that. which I calculate as the true value. large sample size (1999 rates) I should expect this to be profitable. I must emphasize that my calculated true price must also be removed from the bookmaker's margin (or vig) before calculating the value.
Lately, there have been a lot of "appraisers" on Twitter that spot ineffective prices at soft bookmakers - many seem to think that the calculated true probability, meaning that their perceived value may actually be less than the estimated (or even not) values).
What advice do you have for players looking to try and find an edge?
First, you will not find benefits using only available statistics. Secondly, football markets (especially major leagues and cup competitions) are becoming more efficient, making it very difficult for the average player to make any profit in the long run.
Any value in these markets is likely to be destroyed quite early by those people / syndicates who have vastly superior resources available. This means that you will either have to look further down the leagues or to the more obscure countries of the world, where bookmakers may not devote as many resources.
Alternatively, if you have a specific deep knowledge of a team / league / sport, perhaps your predictions, information or connections are better than those set by the bookmakers, which gives you an edge. Keep in mind, however, that if you play these types of bets in the soft book, you will likely be capped pretty quickly by looking like you are making regular EV + bets.
What's your biggest bet and how will you spend it?
My biggest singles pick winner was SV Heider (Germany Regionalliga Nord) at 12/1 against Hanover 96 on August II, 2019. They won 2-0. I usually use winnings to increase my bankroll, but I must admit that I took out some of the them this time to pay for a family holiday!
Are you reviewing your bets and keeping track of your winners / losers?
I have a complete record of all the bids I have placed so I can go back and see what works and what doesn't. These are broken down into monthly profit / loss figures and were always posted either on Twitter, my Telegram channel, or for members when I tipped DasPunter.
I think it is very important that forecasts keep full concurrent records of their bets, not only for transparency, but also in order to validate systems, tweak criteria and maintain continuous development. it takes to keep up with the markets.
How do you deal with losing bets?
As mentioned above, betting is really difficult - especially in the case of a significant losing streak. Every serious player should be able to confirm this.
A significant portion of my 3315 picks to date have been selected by Value UnderDog in the 1 × 2 football market. These are often higher odds bets and, as such, entail some nasty losing streaks (one losing streak was games). It takes a lot of discipline (and the belief that there is an advantage) to stick to the system even after 5-10 losing picks.
Perseverance in this system for over two years taught me a lot of patience and self-confidence even when others criticized the system or when the picks got lost due to up to 96 min + target !!
There are times when taking a break is beneficial, not because “luck isn't right for me,” but rather from a mental health perspective.
What's the best thing about betting?
I just love trying to find the edge and beat the bookmaker's price. I enjoy reading and discussing different approaches with intelligent people on Twitter, and I try to convey what I have learned to those who are interested.
Despite increasing restrictions and more efficient markets, it is still a very interesting hobby that complements my love of sports, especially football. I can't wait to do sports again.
Good luck and thanks for reading. If you have any questions, email me and email me in DM @ ValueSportBets .
Message Meet the Experts: @ValueSportBets's James Shares His Opinion, Sources, and Favorite Betting Memories first appeared on We love betting .