JAMES Potter ( @ thebettingdesk ) looks at all eight euro 2020 quarter-finalists, sharing his research, opinions and favorite betting options as we approach the business end of the competition.
Euro 2020: Profile of the Quarter-Finalists
We come to the last eight teams, and a number of countries believe that they have a real chance to win the tournament. There is no doubt that there are good and bad sides to the draw: England, Czech Republic, Denmark and Ukraine on the one hand and Italy, Belgium, Spain and Switzerland on the other.
If we take the FIFA rating as a rough guide to the quality of each side, we see that on the England side we have 4 , 11 th, 25th and 44 th located sides, and the remaining 1 Street , 6 -e , 7 -e and 14 th ... The sides that have two wins in the final deserve to be here, but I want to examine their main results and see if they look like likely winners.
Portugal won Euro 2016 and it was usually seen as a defensive play to lose with a quality Cristiano Ronaldo in front, but they were seventh on throws in 93 minutes and 9 th for shots on target for 90 minutes with xG 1. 44 and xGA equal to 0. 96.
England averaged more shots per game than any other team in the tournament, and they advanced to Iceland in Round 18. Wales, Germany and France, reaching the semi-finals, finished in the top five for shots on target in 93 minutes when Germany , France and Portugal were in the top six for the fewest shots on target in 90 minutes.
Winners Portugal, as well as semi-finalists Germany and France, left the tournament with three of the top four xG goal difference in minutes.
While none of these metrics should be considered an exact science, we can easily conclude that the best sides based on shot creation fundamentals, the defenses that missed the fewest shots, and the sides with the strongest expected goal difference had a tendency to reach the latter. stages of the tournament. Portugal did not do well on any of the individual scores, but was consistently strong on all scores
So what, then, are the remaining eight sides in the summer competition?
Czech Republic: W2-D1-L1. F5-A2
They were good against the Netherlands and deservedly won the game xG 0. 96 against 0. 61. There is no doubt that the removal changed the game in the Czechs favor, but they still had to be good enough to benefit from the human advantage.
They struggle to score zero xG goals with no penalty. , the lowest yield in the competition and th lowest on all sides. Of the eight remaining sides, only one side scored less, had fewer shots, shots on target or shots in the box than the Czechs, and at the other end, only the Swiss have a higher xGA without penalty and conceded more shots.
The Czechs are well-tuned and create inconveniences for the opponent, and looking at the intensity of the struggle (duel, tackles, hits in the minute of the opponent's possession), they are rated very high, and none of the remaining sides in the competition had equal. more pressure was put on the opposition than on the Czech Republic.
You know what you're going to get here. In my rating they are 5 of the eight remaining nations. They will then run into Danes who seem to have momentum and, as we will see later, they look good.
Belgium: W4-D0-L0. F7-A1
Belgium has made good progress, conceding just one goal against Denmark. They beat a good team of Portugal in the last round, but generated only 0.xG and still have a negative difference of xG with xG 1. 12 and xGA 1.23. They have lost two of their four games so far, hitting more shots on target against Finland and Russia, while Denmark and Portugal have scored more.
They have concerns about injuries due to Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard, and without those two, you really worry about their creativity. In my ranking, Belgium turned out to be the worst side in the competition, given their low attacking statistics and poor defensive performance.
In defense, I think you can get them. On average they conceded 17 shots per game and only the Swiss concede more and 2.78 shots on target, and with three defenders who faced Portugal, they have an average age of 35.6 and played in St. Petersburg, Copenhagen , St. Petersburg, then in Seville, and now they are leaving for Munich.
With Alex Witsel in the back, they look a little more stable, but it will be interesting how good he is after a long layoff. Tolerance 2.78 hits on target per game, third the worst of the teams remaining in the competition and, when faced with Italy, could lead to an early retirement. ... You can get them 7/1 odds of winning a tournament, which is for me in a value game, but I can't back them up with this basic data to even beat Italy.
Denmark: W2-D0-L2. F9-A4
Denmark overcame all the odds and horror of their discovery to face the Czechs in the quarterfinals, and in my opinion they deserve to participate in this round, having played very well in all four games so far.
They would have beaten Finland if the game hadn't been stopped because of the sad scenes we saw with Christian Eriksen. They won xG 2. 35 against 0. 39 with a goal from the Finns with their only shot on goal with the Danes hitting shots and five shots on target.
They were the best team back then when they lost 2-1 to Belgium, winning xG 2. 63 against 1. 16 before finding their form ahead of Russia 4-1 and Wales 4-0. I'm not sure Denmark was given enough praise given that their best player dropped out of the tournament.
They have 3 highest no penalty xG from 1.88, 2 and the most shots from 20.75 per game, and neither side hit more shots on target, and 3 rd highest shots in the penalty area. This is very impressive. They not only attack well, but are also strong in the rear with 3rd the smallest without penalties xGA with 0.. 73, 2 nd the least number of shots and 2 nd the least number of missed shots. This is a good team.
In my rating, this side is ranked 2 and the best team remaining in the competition. I think the Czechs will be like the rivals of Wales and Russia, which are big strong teams that like to mix them up, and the Danes will love this type of play. Over the past two games, the Danes have scored shots and 17 shots on target. Before the start of the tournament they had a record of P 31 - W 18 - D 12 - L2, both defeats were from Belgium.
England W4-D0-L0. F4-A0
England did what was asked of them. He headed the group and for the first time since He goes home ... Let's not get carried away for now.
Southgate faced Germany with nine defenders and their core numbers were horribly poor. North Macedonia still had more shots than England and the Three Lions played one more game than they did. I know what I'm going to write and it upset a lot of people, but England hasn't made that impression yet.
Southgate is a safety-conscious manager who doesn't get the most out of his forward-thinking players. 0.95 no penalty xG is 8 th the lowest in the tournament with Scotland, Ukraine, Austria and Poland, which creates more chances and you worry about what happens if England goes out.
Only Finland and Hungary scored fewer shots per Minutes and neither side in the competition scored fewer shots on target: England averaged 2.5 in each game and scored just 4 18 shots in the penalty area, where only Russia, Finland, Slovakia and Hungary have less than minutes.
I read that Southgate asked its data scientists to look at previous major tournaments and figure out what it takes to win the top trophy, and the answer was to keep it clean, but as Portugal found out, you need something more. last time in 2016.
England has an impressive defense record of just 0, no xGA penalty, 4 th the smallest in 93 minutes, but it is better in Italy and Denmark, which stand in the way of England and fame.
Although England allows 8.78 shots per game, their hitting statistics are excellent at just 1.5 per game, but it's really amazing when they played Croatia, Scotland and the Czech Republic in the group stage and they all finished well in the bottom half of the teams. ... for trying to hit the target.
Despite my reservations about England, they must have too much for Ukraine, and this will lead to the semi-finals with the Danes or the Czechs.
Italy W3-D1-L0. F7-A0
For me, the team of the tournament, although it was very lucky with offside goals against Austria, and if it were not for VAR, it would already be at home. Nevertheless, the Italians found a way out and, in the end, deserved to win.
I have them as the best team remaining in my rankings with some strong base stats - 1.88 without penalty xG and 0.49 xGA, the best in the tournament. Neither side made more shots or conceded fewer. However, we have to keep in mind who they have played with so far, with Austria, Turkey and Wales, which turned out to be easy opponents, and Wales was 21 th and Turkey 19 th in my ranking.
The Italians have a good eye on the ball and have a variety of bench options to turn the game around if they need them. They averaged 25.7 touches of the ball in the opponent's penalty area, while their opponents, Belgium, averaged just 16. 20, which is less than the likes of Russia, Poland and Turkey.
They have not conceded a goal in 14 minutes of games unbeaten since September, including friendly matches, and since Mancini took over his W - D8-L2 lost only 16. I think they will beat Belgium and reach the final, albeit with better odds / 5 the value may have dropped, I would rather support them than England at 20/12.
Spain W2-D2-L0. F9-A4
Spain probably should have won the group dominating Sweden and Poland, but they fought in front of the net. In those two games, they generated 4.1 xG and had 11 shots on target. Unsurprisingly, Spain has the best result without xG penalties with 2.per game and 2 and most shots on target per game and most shots into the box
No player in the tournament has made more shots or shots on target than Alvaro Morata, and only Ronaldo has the best result without an xG penalty.
From the point of view of protection, this is very interesting. Spain scored the fewest shots in all competitions - just 5. per game, with only three sides facing fewer shots on target and neither side with fewer shots into the box.
Unai Simon at the gate did 2 and the smallest number of saves, and the xGA without penalty was 0. 97, but the xGA coefficient for the number of missed shots is 0. , which is the highest among all teams. For context, Turkey conceded the most goals, but with an xGA per shot of 0.
This tells us that the shots that Spain are missing have great chances and the opponents are more likely to score. I like Spain and I think they will make it to the semi-finals, but their center-backs are struggling and they can be intimidated and I think they will be uncomfortable against the Swiss. This is a game in which I think we will see goals.
Spain should play Italy in the semi-finals and as the Spaniards struggle to defend against a stronger opponent, I think the Italians will reach the final from this side of the group.
Switzerland W1-D2-L1. F7-A8
Swiss Finished 3 -m in his group, scoring a single victory over Turkey, which was the worst dark horse. in any major competition. Despite playing well against France, they lost to xG 3.9 to 2.6 and scored three goals on four shots on target.
The Swiss are one of two retired sides that have a negative result with no xG penalty, which means they have to concede more goals than they score, the other side is the Czechs. On the defensive, the Swiss look poor
From 24 Teams entering the tournament are sitting Swiss 22 th for missed shots, 17 th for missed shots and 22 st for throws into the box, conceded without penalty xGA 1.57 per game, which is 19 oh of 25 teams.
Not only that they traveled 418 km for their games, it is 2,810 km more than on any other side and 9,818 km more than in Spain. You have to wonder how much the game against France has caused the Swiss team.
They look to the side with a 73 average. The 2% has more possession in their four games, attempts and assists than any other team, and unfortunately I think this game may be too far away for the Swiss. Although, given the Spanish defense, I expected both teams to find a gate, but the Spaniards will come out on top.
Ukraine W1-D1-L2. F5-A6
I think it's entirely possible that Ukraine was happy to lose their last group game and risked who they might have faced in the last 18 after completing 3 a circle ... They succeeded because they played Sweden and won the quarterfinals where they will face England.
In fact, I thought that their debut game against the Dutch was better than many people thought they deserved, despite the fact that they only created 0.6 xG, they often made the wrong decisions in the last 3 rd, missed the mark or lasted too long and was neutralized by the Dutch defenders.
In any case, here they are with their only victory in the minutes spent over North Macedonia, and they did not keep a clean sheet in the tournament and only four clean sheets in the last matches, although one of them was in the League of Nations against Spain, others were against Estonia. Northern Ireland and Cyprus in friendly matches.
Ukraine is unremarkable at best. Looking at their baseline performance data, this is not impressive. 1.38 no penalty xG and 1.09 xGA. They produced 6 -e most shots on target, but defensively it's not that smart with. 38 missed shots and 4.17 hits on target and massive. One shot into the penalty area is missed. Even England, which is struggling to create chances, should be able to use multiple chances and shots here.
The Ukrainians looked overwhelmed in their previous games with Austria and then again with extra time against the Swedes. Their game against England takes place in Rome, where the temperature will be degrees, again, this will not help the Ukrainian players if they are fighting fatigue.
So what is left for us?
I'm happy to join Italy to get around Belgium, especially if De Bruyne doesn't start. Belgium struck just six shots against Portugal, creating just 0. 19 xG. The Italian defenders really know what to expect from Lukaku and I am concerned about the depth of the Belgian lineup if they get hurt or need to change the game.
In my opinion it will be a low points game and if we combine Under 4 goals and Italy to qualify we can get / 21s Bet 365 .
In my opinion, Spain should score goals against the Swiss. As I mentioned before, when they miss chances, Spain usually has a high probability of scoring, and their center-backs feel uncomfortable with the ball in the box. I think the Swiss will score and therefore "Both Teams To Score" looks like a great bet on / 21 with Sport Nation.
England - Ukraine should see the progress of the Three Lions, but in a game with a low score. Southgate should make some adjustments to get a few players on the yellow card rope, but he will not remove the shackles and allow England to attack. England win and a goal under 3.5 is the best option for me at 20/22 s Betway .
Denmark will be more than happy to fight a physical and stubborn Czech, but I don't think that worries them. Assertive and playing for each other, they will come out ahead and overload the Czechs. I really love that the Danes will win this match and they can get support 6/5 s Matchbook .
This means I think Italy, England, Spain and Denmark will make it to the semi-finals and that could be almost 4/1 s Bet365... Considering what I wrote above, they look the best in their quarterfinals.
This means that in the semi-finals there will be Spain versus Italy and England versus Denmark. I have already said that it seems to me that Italy will reach the final, and if England does not show more attacking intentions, I think that they may fail against the Danes. So I support the final of Italy against Denmark at 1/1 with SBK.
Switzerland v Spain - Both Teams To Score (/ Sport Nation)
Czech Republic v Denmark - Denmark to win (6/5 Matchbook )
Ukraine - England - England wins and scoring is less than 3.5 (/ 22 Betway )
Euro 2020 - Italy vs Denmark will meet in the final (15/1 SBK)
Message Euro 2020 Bet Preview & amp; Tips: Quarter-Finalist Profiles were first presented at We Love Betting 22.