Top tips to eliminate bias in your bets
Tim sits to watch Manchester United play Arsenal. Betting odds:
5/4 (2.25) Manchester United
44/10 (3.90) Draw
9/5 (2.80) Arsenal
The teams warm up and suddenly Bruno Fernandez and Marcus Rashford break their legs and miss the game. Tim realizes how important these players are to United and suddenly realizes that Arsenal is now a good bet. He quickly rushes to his computer and puts £ 50 in favor of Arsenal to win 9/5.
A minute before the start of the match, he checks the odds at Arsenal again and sees that they are now 6/5. The start and Arsenal are terrible, while United play brilliantly, beating Arsenal 3-0. Tim is angry because he lost £ 80. Then his pesky teammate asks him;
" If you turned the time back a few hours and got the time again, would you make this bet? ? "
Tim answered hastily; " Of course not, why would I lose $ 50 again? I am not idiot ".
Tim just succumbed to the bias of the result.
Determining the bias of the result (Investopedia?: Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events, regardless of how past events developed.
In betting jargon, this means evaluating the effectiveness of a bet based on whether it won or lost, regardless of the reasons it was placed, good or bad.
Everyone remembers their first bet. If he won, you probably thought that it was easy to place bets and could be good money for. If he loses, you will probably be shocked to lose a couple of pounds, and you have promised that you will never do it again.
But whether the bet is won or lost, it won't tell you if the bet was good or not. It doesn't really matter.
Avoiding Result Bias in rates
The only way to judge the success of a bet is to see if you managed to beat the close line without margin, which is discussed later in This article .
The example I gave at the beginning is a situation where a really good bet was made, but Tim was so upset with the outcome that he completely neglected his great work and succumbed to the bias of the outcome.
Arsenal finished 6/5 on Pinnacle. Take away their margin and the true odds are around 5/4, which means Arsenal has a 50 .4% chance of winning. Getting odds above 5/4 would be a good bet, in other words, long-term profitability.
Good bets can lose, and bad bets can win. Most recently, I made a bet on a weekend match between Liverpool and Manchester United, having scored less than 4.5 goals, at odds of 1/4. I won this bet with confidence, as the game ended 0-0. But if I could go back in time, I would not have made this bet again, since the closing rate in Pinnacle was also 1/4. So, once you add their margin, the true odds are around 2/7.
Tips to Eliminate Result Bias
So with that said, here are four tips on how to implement this mindset into your day-to-day betting:
- Don't follow prompts, use software, or follow your own judgment just because they / you support the winners. Follow them or support yourself if they / you consistently hit last on a large sample size of bets.
- Keep a record of all your bets and the closing lines of all of them. If this is too much effort, just mark if the bet beats the final line with a simple yes or no.
- If you're watching a game that you bet on, just check the closing odds. before starting the game. Then you will know if it was a good bet, no matter what happens in the game.
- This is very difficult and not very fun, but try not to watch the game and check the score if you are just waiting to see the result of your bet. It doesn't really do you any good, unless it's your favorite team that you love to watch / support.
I hope these tips can help you get rid of your betting bias. And as always (shameless traffic jam arrives), if you want to place bets that consistently exceed the last line, go to Friendly sports and start your free trial.
Editor, player with over 5 years of experience
I have been betting on sports since I was 20. For 5 years I have pumped myself up in this business and now, relying on my own experience, I share the secrets of the world of online betting. I'm just talking about the difficult: what is a handicap, where is it better to bet for a beginner, how to win on bets.
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