LIVERPOOL entertains Manchester City in a flamboyant Premier League showdown in Super Sunday. Tom Love ( @ TomLove _ 18 ) shares his rates of thought.
Liverpool vs Manchester City | Sunday, 3 October 2021, 04:30 pm | Sky sport
- Liverpool are undefeated in their last 16 league appearances.
- Liverpool have scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 13 league appearances.
- Jurgen Klopp has the best management track record against Pep Guardiola with 9 wins.
Manchester City are back in an epic match that could help see who can't win the title. They were great last week at Stamford Bridge and in fact they should have won more. Few teams will dominate the Blues this way, but while Chelsea are more pragmatic in a team style, I would like to think that Liverpool will cause more organized chaos.
The Reds have an excellent home record for having fans in front of Klopp and looking back to their formidable results, and they have yet to lose that deadline. If you look at the xG data, which is usually run by Manchester City, you will see Liverpool with similar numbers showing that their results were well deserved.
So I'm a little surprised that the price of this game didn't come close to that of Chelsea's game against Manchester City. City had very minor favorites last week, and at Anfield they are as short as 13/8 where Liverpool is trading at 2/1. I rate Liverpool on par, if not better, than Chelsea this season, and their home records are mostly exceptional under Klopp, even in big games.
These prices mean we can attract hosts in the Asian handicap market and I am ready to beat the Reds +0. 30 at odds of 10/16 (mansion bet) here. Supporting this choice will benefit us if the hosts avoid defeat with a half stake if it ends in a draw and a full stake if Liverpool wins.
I think there is one very valuable area in the props market here. Given the exclusion of Trent Alexander-Arnold, it is likely that Jordan Henderson will take on the free-kick role, at least in areas that fit the right footer. In the middle of the week he had 4 shots against Porto, including a free kick on target. 3 of his 4 shots in that game were also from outside the box.
He has done well this season with 2+ shots in 4/7 games. With the additional bonus of him for 7/2 free kicks ( Betfair ) on it to fix 2 or more throws in the game, looks like the price of the capping. I'll also give him a little to hit the target from outside the box at 11/2 ( SkyBet ).
Liverpool - Manchester City - Liverpool +0. 25 Asian Handicap (10/13 Mansion Bet)
Liverpool - Manchester City - Jordan Henderson 2+ shots (7/2 Betfair )
Liverpool - Manchester City - Jordan Henderson 1+ shot on target from outside the box (13/2 SkyBet )
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