How do you measure “value” in sports betting?
The last article I wrote for WeLoveBetting is about defining what is value betting and why is it so important . This time I'll take a look at how you measure value both before and after the game.
Don't measure the success of your bets on a win / lose basis
While this statement sounds ludicrous, if you want to make long-term profits from sports betting, you need to benefit from the bookmaker's office.
So, after you have placed your bet, how can you sit on the couch before the game and think; "Okay, I just made a great bet!"
Well, you need a test that you can compare against, and for sports bettors, this is called the end line, in other words, the final price that was offered milliseconds before the start of the game. ...
Why? Because the closing price takes into account every bit of information the market has to offer. Whether it's the thoughts of the crowd, the opinion of professional bettors, or the position of a bookmaker's syndicate. All news related to the game is also taken into account (for example, Paul Pogba returns due to injury or Kevin de Bruyne missed the game due to illness).
An example of exceeding the closing line can be a bet on Manchester United to win from 1.70, and by the time the game starts, their price has dropped to 1.60 in diff.
How do I beat the final line? And who should I defeat?
Pinnacle's closing line is the price you should try to beat, as they tend to have the most liquidity in the market as they do not constrain winning players. The final feature of Pinnacle is what people call the "true odds" of sports play.
Note. Although in most cases Pinnacle's prices are higher than all bookmakers, they still take margin on their odds. Typically, this is around 2%, while soft bookmakers (e.g. Rate , William Hill etc.) It's about 5-10%. Thus, you don't need to just exceed Pinnacle's closing line, you need to be Pinnacle's borderless closing line.
The key factor in beating the closing price is to bet as close to the start as possible. V Friendly sports , we recommend that you place your bets 0-8 hours before the start of the game. If you place a bet in excess of the current Pinnacle price (0-8 hours before the start of the game), you will most likely win the bet after the game starts.
The closer to the start you place your bet, the better, because the longer you wait, the more liquidity there is in the market, which means more information.
As I said earlier, if you want to make long-term profit from sports betting, stop watching if your bet won or lost after the game, see if you win. borderless closing line.
Simplified cost search
Everything I've talked about can be done manually, but it takes a lot of time and effort.
If you want to save time looking for great bets that consistently beat Pinnacle's no-margin closing line, start your free weekly trial Friendly sports .
Trademate finds bets for you, all you have to do is place them with the bookmaker.
Note: for those who want to beat the final line in the races, Betfair The bookmaker's closing line seems to be the most accurate measure.